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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”